Author: INDIAinF1 Desk

By Malhaar Khaladkar

New Delhi, 2 February 2024: In the words of famous TV presenter Jeremy Clarkson, “And on that Bombshell”, Sir Lewis Hamilton has kickstarted the 2024 Formula 1 season with the announcement that he will be driving for Ferrari from 2025 onwards. This is the biggest driver transfer in Formula 1, since Hamilton himself announced he would leave McLaren for Mercedes in 2013, sending shockwaves throughout the paddock.

Part II (You can read Part I here)

The Ferrari Element

John Elkann, Stellantis and Ferrari Chairman has said to have a key role in persuading Hamilton to join the Scuderia. Vasseur already being the Team Principal means Hamilton already has people at Ferrari that he trusts. Further, a marriage between arguably the greatest driver in Formula 1 and the greatest team in Formula 1 is too enticing. When the opportunity came Ferrari jumped at signing the Briton. Just the magnitude of this announcement is a commercial dream. It also coincides with Sainz’s contract finishing at the end of 2024 and Leclerc signing a multi-year deal to continue with Ferrari.

Sweeping power unit and technical regulations give a clean sheet where Ferrari could be best placed to capitalise and leap forward of the field. This is what attracted Hamilton to join them. 2025 would be a season where he can bed in and 2026 go all out for the title. Ferrari have not won a drivers’ championship since 2007 and constructors’ championship since 2008. If Hamilton can get one or both, that too with Ferrari his status will undoubtedly be cemented as the greatest.

One could say it is a match made in heaven as both have the immense hunger to not only win again but get their dominant glory days back, especially for Ferrari as it has been long overdue. Since the Maranello squad last won, it has been plagued by mismanagement, bad strategy calls, dirty politics and mediocre engineering given the facilities they have. This is concurred by the failure of great drivers like Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso’s inability to win a title with them. Ferrari’s motivation to bring Hamilton would be to get these processes right. It has already started with Vasseur in charge and bringing positive changes in the technical departments. There is no doubt in Hamilton’s abilities, give him a car and he will deliver. Hamilton is being brought in to push and extract the best out of every single team member. His experience and knowledge will be invaluable to the team. The onus is on Ferrari then to help Hamilton and themselves to reach the summit.

Lastly, there is Sainz who is out of contract after 2024 and will not continue with Ferrari. For the Italian squad it is a no brainer, if a driver of Hamilton’s stature is available, they will make him a priority. Sainz was able to match Leclerc throughout his time at Ferrari but was never clearly faster than the Monegasque. Leclerc is the Scuderia’s golden boy but remains to be seen how the dynamic will evolve once Hamilton is there in 2025. Make no mistake Sainz is immensely talented and will land a drive for 2025 somewhere, Mercedes being one of the options. The Spaniard has been heavily linked with Stake F1 team Kick Sauber, which will be rebranded as Audi in 2026. Remains to be seen what plans Sainz has.

The Conundrum facing Mercedes

Mercedes and specifically Toto Wolff have been caught off guard by this bombshell news. Wolff said that he got to know about the news only a day before and that before going in the winter break Mercedes and Hamilton’s ambitions were aligned. Turns out the contract Hamilton signed was a 1+1 year contract which had an exit clause at the end of the first year, which Hamilton used.

A week ago, the future at Mercedes looked very different with Hamilton and George Russell embedded to bring Mercedes to the front again. That is all up in the air as Hamilton has decided agree terms with Ferrari for his future. With Hamilton being there, the team had a clear direction for development which now might be out of the window. This might backtrack Mercedes’ plans to get to the front in the short term.

This agreement between Hamilton and Ferrari has a twofold impact on the German squad. Firstly, Hamilton is still part of Mercedes for 2024. This means that Hamilton will be excluded from certain parts of the team which plan their long-term development. On track strategy and planning will also be affected by this somewhat. Wolff has commented that both drivers will be treated equally throughout the season but clearly Russell is the future for the Silver Arrows. It is a positive situation for Russell as he becomes the de facto leader of the team once Hamilton departs. Secondly, this announcement means Mercedes have to look for a driver to fill their vacant seat. Mercedes is not the formidable team they used tobe; their seat was the most coveted till 2021. Still, they are one of the big names in Formula 1 and a works team so drivers would undoubtedly want to sign for them.

There are multiple candidates for this seat. Sainz will be out of contract and could technically swap with Hamilton. But Mercedes have already been hurt by their man leaving for Ferrari and hence, they may not want Sainz as he is a former Ferrari man. They may look towards Fernando Alonso, but he may not be the right choice for long term future in the eyes of Mercedes. Alex Albon of Williams is a sound choice considering he gets along with Russell and has shown that he can be consistent. Further vacating the Williams seat means Mercedes young driver Andrea Kimi Antonelli could be placed in the Williams who share a good working relationship with Mercedes. Antonelli will be in F2 for 2024, and depending on his performances could make the jump to F1 in 2025. Esteban Ocon is another name that comes to mind as he is managed Gwen Lagrue, Mercedes’ Driver Development Advisor. Factors against Ocon might be that he was beaten by fellow Frenchman Pierre Gasly in their first season as teammates. Daniel Ricciardo is another name linked with Mercedes in the past but there are questions if Mercedes would want him due to his age and whether he would be willing to leave the Red Bull family a second time.Drivers such as Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have already signed long term deals with McLaren. Max Verstappen would not move as he is long term contracted to Red Bull and is in the fastest car on the grid currently.

If Mercedes move in too quickly for a driver, they may end up losing an opportunity to sign a driver of a higher caliber later. Make their move too late and all their targets may be locked down to their respective teams.

Hamilton and Ferrari will be hoping for a fruitful outcome of their union from 2025 onwards whereas Mercedes will be hoping to get their new driver and development cards right for the future.

By Malhaar Khaladkar

New Delhi, 2 February 2024: In the words of famous TV presenter Jeremy Clarkson, “And on that Bombshell”, Sir Lewis Hamilton has kickstarted the 2024 Formula 1 season with the announcement that he will be driving for Ferrari from 2025 onwards. This is the biggest driver transfer in Formula 1, since Hamilton himself announced he would leave McLaren for Mercedes in 2013, sending shockwaves throughout the paddock.

On Thursday February 1, it was announced that Hamilton will be joining Ferrari on a multi-year arrangement starting in 2025. He will partner Charles Leclerc as Carlos Sainz will make way for the 7-time world champion.

Reports of Hamilton joining Ferrari are not a recent development in Formula 1 paddock. In fact, every time Hamilton’s contract has been up for renewal at Mercedes, rumours of the Briton joining the Prancing Horse have flared up. These rumors had little substance though and looked like a pipe dream, as nothing more than casual talks took place between Hamilton and Ferrari. Possibly, these rumors helped strengthen Hamilton’s contract negotiation with Mercedes. But joining Ferrari never seemed feasible for Hamilton as Mercedes was the place to be. Mercedes produced title winning cars from 2014 till 2021, winning eight Constructors’ Championship. Hamilton himself won six of his seven World Drivers’ Championships with the Silver Arrows.

This time it was different when the news broke. Specifically, the timing was peculiar as Hamilton had just signed a two-year (1+1 year) contractwith Mercedes in August 2023. Further multiple reports coming out of the Formula 1 paddock indicated that this was a story with substance. So, what convinced Hamilton to join the Maranello squad and leave his long-standing family of Mercedes?

A Lewis Hamilton Perspective

Hamilton has been a part of the Mercedes family since he was13 years old. His whole Formula 1 career has been powered by Mercedes engines, first at McLaren as Mercedes supplied them, then at the works team itself. He has achieved some mind-boggling statistics with the Silver Arrows powering him. He has 7 World Drivers’ Championships, 103 wins, 104 pole positions and 197 podiums in 332 grands prix. With Mercedes works team alone he has 6 World Drivers’ Championships, 82 wins, 78 pole positions and 148 podiums in 222 grands prix.

Hamilton is 39 years old now and is at the twilight of his career. It seemed as if Hamilton would hang up his gloves at Mercedes hoping to be crowned Champion for the 8^th time, provided the Silver Arrows gave him a car that could challenge for it. He would be a Mercedes man life long, much like Sir Stirling Moss. It only seemed right that what had propelled him throughout his Formula 1 career would the same when closing it as well. Then what is it that made him join the most coveted team in Formula 1?

Sebastian Vettel once said, “everyone is a Ferrari fan”. In fact, there is no Ferrari without Formula 1 and no Formula 1 without Ferrari. It is every racers dream since a child to adorn the Scarlet Red overalls and drive for the Prancing Horse. Yes, there is romanticism attached to this move. For so long a Hamilton-Ferrari partnership seemed impossible, but now that Hamilton is nearer to the end of his career, it makes sense to take on a new challenge and go for a last hurrah.

The Briton must have looked at the development trajectory of Mercedes and thought that they cannot challenge for a title for another couple of seasons, combined with the sweeping technical rule changes for both the power unit and the car coming in 2026. 2021 was brutal ending as the championship was taken out of his hand on the last lap in Abu Dhabi, yet his resolve remained strong. Come 2022, a rules overhaul ushered in ground effect cars where Red Bull came out of the blocks strong and Mercedes considerably missed their mark struggling to third place in the championship. Mercedes’ car philosophy of the zero-pod and long wheelbase did not work for the new regulations. Yet, the team decided to stick with it for the W14, their challenger for the 2023 season. W14 did not fare better as it lagged behind the Red Bull- the title winners- by a big margin, even though Mercedes managed to finish 2^nd come the end of the season.The Briton publicly demanded accountability and said that the Mercedes technical team had not listened to him regarding what the car needs to be at the front of the field. Hamilton would have taken into account the development of the W15 and though progress would have been made, it might not be enough to take on the title charge.

Ferrari on the other hand finished 3^rd in the championship but had a better car towards the end of the season, getting narrowly beaten by Mercedes. Plus, Hamilton struggled with his Mercedes at the end of the season to challenge for podiums whereas Sainz was the only non-Red Bull driver to win a race. Combined that with Frederic ‘Fred’ Vasseur is the Team Principal of Ferrari. The Frenchman happens to be a close friend of Hamilton and he was the Briton’s team manager in GP3 and GP2, before Hamilton entered Formula 1. Since joining Ferrari in 2023, Vasseur has brought in several technical people from Red Bull and Mercedes over to Ferrari, to strengthen their technical and engineering department. One of the names that has gone from the Mercedes camp over to Ferrari is Loic Serra who was the Head of Vehicle Performance at Mercedes. He will join Ferrari from 2025 and is one of the key factors why Hamilton is joining Ferrari.

Loic Serra was said to be at odds over the zero pod and long wheelbase concept used by then Mercedes Technical Director Mike Elliot. Both Hamilton and Serra seemed to echo the same concerns. Furthermore, changes in the Mercedes structure and significant big-name departures have not only played a role in Mercedes’ downfall but Hamilton leaving as well. It started with departures of Aldo Costa and Mark Ellis in 2018. They were pivotal in design of the Mercedes cars that won them both championships from 2014 to 2018. Mercedes would experience success till 2021 though. Andy Cowell, Head of Mercedes HPP departed the team in 2020. He was regarded as the brains behind the architecture and success of Mercedes’ turbo-hybrid power unit, which used to be the field leader. Mercedes’ Technical Director James Allison moved on to a Chief Technical Officer role in 2021, though he came back as the Technical Director after the team struggled for two consecutive seasons in the ground effect era.Lastly, James Vowles, Chief Strategist and another one of Hamilton’s confidants, left Mercedes to be team principal at Williams F1. Although Allison and Toto Wolff- with whom Hamilton shares a fantastic relationship- have committed their long-term futures with Mercedes, it is reported that Allison wanted Serra alongside him due to the success achieved pre-2022.

All these factors make it look like a tall order for Mercedes to return to the top in the short to medium future. With Hamilton not getting any younger, he has to see where his chances of winning the coveted 8^th title are, and his bets are on Ferrari with Mercedes progression plateauing.

You can read the second and concluding part here.